What’s ‘sogflation’ and the way is it threatening meals provide chains?

From rising vitality costs to the affect of geopolitical unrest on provide imports, the meals business is dealing with an entire host of challenges, the best of those being local weather change.

Local weather change itself is impacting the meals business in a number of methods, considered one of these being ‘sogflation’.

FoodNavigator not too long ago reported on the damaging results of utmost excessive temperatures and drought on crop manufacturing and the next rise within the value of those commodities. This value rise has come to be termed ‘heatflation​’.

First coined by Bloomberg columnist, Lara Williams, so-called sogflation refers to the alternative finish of the spectrum, highlighting the rising value of commodities because of sustained heavy rainfall and flooding inflicting injury to crops. 

It’s been a story of two halves throughout a lot of Europe in recent times. Some international locations, similar to Spain, have been hit by excessive excessive temperatures and drought, impacting crops similar to olives​. In the meantime different international locations, similar to France and Germany, have been subjected to heavy rainfall and flooding, which has broken crops similar to wheat and corn.

“In 2023, Europe witnessed the most important wildfire ever recorded, one of many wettest years, extreme marine heatwaves and widespread devastating flooding” mentioned Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s local weather company, Copernicus Local weather Change Service (C3S).

Within the UK, the eighth wettest winter on file​, resulted in widespread flooding throughout the nation, together with farmland, with wheat, barley and vegetable farmers reporting losses to floodwaters.

“For the reason that finish of final 12 months, we’ve got seen lots of of farms throughout the nation face the devastation of flooding and the large monetary stress and distress that brings. Some farms in Lincolnshire have been below water since final October and that’s fully unacceptable,” Tom Bradshaw, president of the Nationwide Farmers Union, informed FoodNavigator.

And it’s not simply agricultural farming affected. Livestock farmers have additionally been negatively impacted, with the lack of the usage of grazing land for his or her animals. Nevertheless, even when flood waters have receded farmers have remained unable to graze livestock on the land because the soil is saturated. In 2024, this meant that dairy farmers in affected areas missed out on a time generally known as “the flush”. The flush is a interval of most milk manufacturing the place the cows are sometimes exterior grazing within the fields, gaining loads of vitality from the grass and producing loads of milk.

Moreover, the consequences of local weather change will not be solely been felt in Europe, they’re being felt proper throughout the globe, with devastating floods in Rio Grande do Sul presently threatening the soybean harvest​. This crop is primarily utilized in animal feed, making it a priority for the soybean farmers themselves, in addition to livestock farmers who depend on this provide.

The World Well being Group (WHO) has acknowledged that globally, “floods are rising in frequency and depth, and the frequency and depth of utmost precipitation is predicted to proceed to extend as a consequence of local weather change”. 

Commodities similar to butter​ have risen in value in recent times, with heavy rainfall and flooding cited as one of many main causes.

Extra not too long ago, the UK has seen the worth of potatoes rise because of rain injury to harvests through the 2023/24 rising season.

“The tightness in provide has been pushed by climate points all through the harvest interval with heavy rainfall resulting in a rise in rots and different high quality points. Additional exacerbating the poor situations was the truth that many growers had delayed crop lifting to bolster yields, following delayed plantings at first of the season. This resulted in the next proportion of the crop remaining within the floor when poor climate situations started,” mentioned Harry Campbell, commodity market knowledge analyst at market intelligence agency Mintec.

Equally, heavy rainfall within the Netherlands and Belgium has led to issues over potato costs throughout Europe as the 2 international locations function main potato suppliers to the area, behind Germany, Poland and France.

As sustained heavy rainfall and flooding proceed to negatively affect meals manufacturing, it’s changing into more and more clear that measures have to be taken to create extra resilient meals programs​​ and defend future meals safety.

“Our new evaluation exhibits that Europe faces pressing local weather dangers which are rising sooner than our societal preparedness,” mentioned Leena Ylä-Mononen, government director of the European Atmosphere Company (EEA). “To make sure the resilience of our societies, European and nationwide policymakers should act now to cut back local weather dangers each by speedy emission cuts and by sturdy adaptation insurance policies and actions.”